“The UK would be permanently poorer if it left the E.U.,” Britain’s Treasury reported recently as the campaigns over Britain's future in Europe reached boiling point.

With the value of the pound nose-diving, the City of London threatening to lose its “financial might,” and international trade with the U.K. looking increasingly unstable, it’s hardly surprising much of corporate Britain is beginning to sweat – with the likes of Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, GlaxoSmithKline and Bank of America joining the "Britain Stronger in Britain" campaign.

But how would U.K.’s permanently poorer status under a Brexit affect ordinary working people of Britain?

For starters, they would lose a month’s salary by 2020 if the U.K. votes to leave the European Union, according to estimates from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The OECD, which is aimed at promoting policies that improve the economic and social wellbeing of people around the world, warned that an exit from Europe would leave households in Britain saddled with a “tax-like financial burden for years.”

Angel Gurria, general secretary of the OECD, spoke of the “consistent losses” of a Brexit vote, likening it to a tax:

“Brexit is like a tax, equivalent to missing out on about month’s income within four years, but it then carries on to 2023, 2030. There is a consistent loss…That tax is going to be continued to be paid by Britons over time. What they would have had in their pocket to spend, they would not have. Therefore, it is as real as tax,” Gurria told the BBC’s Radio 4.

One of the world’s leading forecast groups has estimated lower economic growth for the U.K.’s economy should British voters decide to leave the E.U. on June 23. The OECD has forecast Britain’s GDP would be 3 percent lower in 2020 should a Brexit occur, which would fall to five percent by 2030. The organization forecast an exit would cost British households an average £3,211 (approx. $4,660).

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A Decade of Uncertainty

The OECD’s estimates follow warnings by the government which conducted an official analysis of how a Brexit would unfold in a “decade of uncertainty.”

The report warns that farming, car manufacturing and financial services would be affected during the 10 years it would take for Britain to extract itself from the E.U. The official report said the uncertainty would hit “financial markets, investment and the value of the pound,” and that it would take a decade for Britain to fully exit the E.U. and negotiate fresh trade with other countries, including the United States.

Cabinet Office minister Matt Hancock spoke of the report’s finding, telling the Guardian: 
 “This government analysis shows that leaving the E.U. would lead to a decade of damaging uncertainty. The risks to our economy are clear and would leave the jobs and prosperity of the British people dangerously exposed.”

A Treasury report estimated the long-term damages to the British economy that a Brexit would create, saying the economy would be six percent smaller if the country was to leave Europe, creating a £36 billion hole in public finances annually.

Ordinary working people of Britain will pay the price for the estimated multi-billion-pound hole in public money. The cost of energy bills are likely to soar, with the vehicle breakdown organization AA warning that family fuel bills would increase by £500 a year.

Working people employed in the sectors likely to be hit the hardest by a Brexit would feel the pinch, such as car manufacturing and farming.

Even Chancellor George Osborne, who has been intensely criticized in recent months for the sweeping changes to benefits and income tax he has made that benefit the wealthy at the expense of the poor, warned an E.U. exit would make Britain “permanently poorer.”

Speaking about how Britain would not be united if the nation left the E.U., Osborne told BBC's Radio 4: "The richest in our country would go on being rich, it would be the poorest – the people whose jobs depend on the car plants, whose jobs depend on the steel-making factories and the like – who would be hit if we left the European Union.”

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The Hospitality and Leisure Industry

The hospitality and leisure industry, a notoriously low paid sector that has many staff from the European continent on its payroll, is also likely to be negatively affected by a Brexit. With additional work permits likely to be required, hiring skilled personnel from European nations would be more complicated, time-consuming and costly.

With more stringently controlled borders, the hospitality industry as a whole in Britain could suffer, which would inevitably come as a blow to Britain given that in the period between 2010 to 2012, the industry accounted for almost 30 percent of the U.K.’s total net job growth.

Albert, from Poland, has been working in the hospitality industry in Britain for five years, washing dishes in a hotel in the north of England. He told Occupy.com he was afraid that if Britain left the E.U., his job could vanish.

“I worry that if Britain leaves Europe I will no longer have a job and finding a new one will be difficult,” Albert said.

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Unemployment on the Rise

As uncertainty mounts about Britain’s future in Europe, unemployment is also on the rise. Gloomy figures released by the Office for National Statistics earlier this year found that in the three months leading up to February, unemployment rose by 21,000 in the U.K. – the first increase since July of last year.

The unemployment rise has been pinned on employers being more cautious with their hiring as Britain moves into an era of increased economic uncertainty.

John Roberts, who is in his forties, lost his job earlier this year and has been unable to find a new one. Roberts blames the forthcoming referendum for the lack of job opportunities.

“There just aren’t the number of vacancies as there was before. It’s like the jobs market is drying up and employers are reluctant to take any new staff on, and it’s likely to be even worse if we vote to leave Europe,” Roberts told Occupy.com.

Meanwhile, Chris, a self-employed gardener from Manchester, told Occupy.com why he will be voting to stay in Europe next month.

“They say we’re the seventh richest country in the world. While the most of us don’t see much evidence of us being one of the world’s richest nations, a Brexit would do little to make us richer," he said.

"I’ve always been taught that gambling is a mug’s game, and if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!”

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