Read

User menu

Search form

NASA Scientist: Climate Change Is Happening Now

NASA Scientist: Climate Change Is Happening Now
Tue, 12/4/2012 - by James Hansen
This article originally appeared on The Guardian

Will our short attention span be the end of us? Just a month after the second "storm of a century" in two years, the media moves on to the latest scandal with barely a retrospective glance at the implications of the extreme climate anomalies we have seen.

Hurricane Sandy was not just a storm. It was a stark illustration of the power that climate change can deliver - today - to our doorsteps.

Ask the homeowners along the New Jersey and New York shores still homeless. Ask the local governments struggling weeks later to turn on power to their cold, darkened towns and cities. Ask the entire north-east coast, reeling from a catastrophe whose cost is estimated at $50bn and rising. (I am not brave enough to ask those who've lost husbands or wives, children or grandparents).

I bring up these facts sadly, as one who has urged us to heed the scientific evidence on climate change for the past 25 years. The science is clear: climate change is here, now.

Superstorm Sandy is not the first storm, and certainly won't be the last. Still, it is hard for us as individual human beings to connect the dots. That's where observation, data and scientific analysis help us see.

No credible scientist disputes that we have warmed our climate by almost 1.5C over land areas in the past century, most of that in the past 30 years.

As my colleagues and I demonstrated in a peer-reviewed study published this summer, climate extremes are already occurring much more frequently in the world we have warmed through our reliance on fossil fuels.

Our analysis showed that extreme summer heat anomalies used to be infrequent: covering only 0.1-0.2% of the globe in any given summer during the base period of our study, from 1951 to 1980. During the past decade, as the average global temperature rose, such extremes have covered 10% of the land.

Extreme temperatures deliver more than heat.

The water cycle is especially sensitive to rising temperatures. Increased heat speeds up evaporation, causing more extreme droughts, like the $5 billion (and counting) drought in Texas and Oklahoma. It is linked to an expanding wildfire season and an increase by several fold in the frequency of large fires in the American west.

The heat also leads to more extreme sea surface temperatures - a key culprit behind Sandy's devastating force. The latent heat in atmospheric water vapor is the fuel that powers tornadoes, thunderstorms, and hurricanes. Stepping up evaporation with warmer temperatures is like stepping on the gas: More energy-rich vapor condenses into water drops, releasing more latent heat as it does so, causing more powerful storms, increased rainfall and more extreme flooding. This is not a matter of belief. This is high-school science class.

The chances of getting a late October hurricane in New York without the help of global warming are extremely small. In that sense, you can blame Sandy on global warming. Sandy was the strongest recorded storm, measured by barometric pressure, to make landfall north of Cape Hatteras, eclipsing the hurricane of 1938.

But this fixation on determining the blame for a particular storm, or disputing the causal link between climate change and this or that storm, is misguided.

A better path forward means listening to the growing chorus - Sandy, extreme droughts and wildfires, intense rainstorms, record-breaking melting of Arctic sea ice - and taking action. Think of it like taking out an insurance policy for the planet.

We can fix this. The answer is a price on carbon. We must make the price of fossil fuels honest, reflecting their cost to society including the economic devastation wrought by storms like Sandy, the toll on farmland and ecosystems, as well as priceless human lives.

Whether that price takes the shape of a carbon tax, as some in Washington are now willing to discuss, or a carbon fee, as I have advocated, a price on carbon lets the market find the most effective ways to phase out our reliance on fossil fuels. It also moves us to a sustainable energy future where energy choices are made by individuals and communities, not by Washington mandates and lobbyists.

A carbon fee, collected from fossil fuel companies, will increase consumer costs. So the money that is collected should be distributed to the public. As people try to minimize their energy costs to keep money for other things, their actions will stimulate the economy, drive innovations and transition us away from fossil fuels.

If we make our demand for action clear enough, I am optimistic that our leaders in Washington can look beyond the short-term challenges of today to see the looming, long-term threats ahead, and the answer that is right in front of them. We can't simply allow the next news cycle to distract us from the real task ahead.

Back in the 1980s, I introduced the concept of "climate dice" to make clear the difference between natural variability and climate-change driven extremes. As I predicted, the climate dice in the 21st century are now "loaded". It's not just bad luck Sandy pummeled America's coasts, extreme drought devastated its midlands and wildfires scorched its mountains.

We loaded the dice. We changed our climate.

James E. Hansen directs the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

3 WAYS TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT

ONE-TIME DONATION

Just use the simple form below to make a single direct donation.

DONATE NOW

MONTHLY DONATION

Be a sustaining sponsor. Give a reacurring monthly donation at any level.

GET SOME MERCH!

Now you can wear your support too! From T-Shirts to tote bags.

SHOP TODAY

Sign Up

Article Tabs

If Trump indeed tanks your 401(k) to make himself and his friends even richer, the opposition party should make that the centerpiece of their attack heading into next year’s election.

The burgeoning pro-democracy, anti-Trump movement known as 50501 expects to drive tens and possibly hundreds of thousands to protest in 1,000 cities and towns on Saturday.

The only thing overshadowing the evil of the regime is its incompetence. And the people are only just beginning to realize the power we have.

It isn’t difficult to argue that Musk is likely a white supremacist obsessed with increasing the white birthrate and simultaneously killing off undesirables by cutting off their aid.

In a political earthquake last year, the populist and racist Reform Party took 4.1 million votes, coming third, against a backdrop of collapsing living standards and accelerating impoverishment.

In many European countries, the far right holds or shares power. Democracy is in crisis.

If Trump indeed tanks your 401(k) to make himself and his friends even richer, the opposition party should make that the centerpiece of their attack heading into next year’s election.

The burgeoning pro-democracy, anti-Trump movement known as 50501 expects to drive tens and possibly hundreds of thousands to protest in 1,000 cities and towns on Saturday.

The only thing overshadowing the evil of the regime is its incompetence. And the people are only just beginning to realize the power we have.

A broad range of Americans are organizing a 24-hour economic boycott on February 28th to protest the ongoing actions of the Trump administration and to send a message to corporate America.

It isn’t difficult to argue that Musk is likely a white supremacist obsessed with increasing the white birthrate and simultaneously killing off undesirables by cutting off their aid.

Posted 1 month 2 weeks ago

There are multiple similarities between Trump and the British monarch when looking at the 27 grievances the framers outlined in their 1776 declaration.

Posted 1 month 3 weeks ago

The burgeoning pro-democracy, anti-Trump movement known as 50501 expects to drive tens and possibly hundreds of thousands to protest in 1,000 cities and towns on Saturday.

Posted 1 week 4 days ago

A broad range of Americans are organizing a 24-hour economic boycott on February 28th to protest the ongoing actions of the Trump administration and to send a message to corporate America.

Posted 1 month 2 weeks ago

The grassroots opposition to President Donald Trump is hitting the streets everywhere.

Posted 1 month 4 weeks ago