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Greetings! Very helpful advice in this particular article!

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Thanks for sharing!|
I absolutely love your blog.. Excellent colors & theme.
Did you develop this website yourself? Please reply
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«Большой корабль, который медленно тонет». Так говорят про Россию китайцы, лучше нас самих поставившие диагноз нашей стране. Плавное погружение на дно чревато тем, что можно его почти не замечать. Спокойно переходить с одной палубы на другую, опустошая барные запасы лайнера. «Стабильно» не испытывать дискомфорта.

И в этом проблема: так легко успокаивать себя байками про «вставание с колен» и при этом не видеть, как растет, постепенно становясь непреодолимой, дистанция между уходящими вперед развитыми странами и Россией — потухающим, как старая планета, «сырьевым гигантом». Порой может даже казаться, что курс выравнивается: вот стоимость нефти чуть-чуть подросла, вот вроде инфляция замедлилась. Однако на поверку все эти колебания волн на общем скольжении вниз не сказываются: промышленного роста нет, новые производства, кроме сырьевых, не появляются, инфраструктура ветшает, наука и образование чахнут, население стареет, талантливая молодежь не востребована. Список можно продолжать и продолжать.

Не нужно быть Вангой, чтобы предсказать, что «новая экономическая стратегия», которую нам обещают к маю, окажется очередным мифом. К бабке не ходи, там будет про «развитие человеческого капитала» (на фоне сокращения школ, больниц, заморозки соцвыплат), «создание комфортной среды для бизнеса и инвестиций» (на фоне предельного закошмаривания предпринимателей и сокращения спроса из-за нищеты населения). Про «стабилизацию и достижение дна кризиса» (про дно — согласен, только не кризиса, а жизни). Про приватизацию остатков госактивов.

Там не будет: про создание новых производств и рабочих мест; развитие несырьевого экспорта; подъем науки и образования; ликвидацию коррупции и аффилированных с чиновниками монополий; про воссоздание уничтоженного правового и социального государства. А если что-то и будет, то общими словами и без конкретики. Представьте себе эдакую «программу ремонта всего дома», в которой самая радикальная мера — это переставить комод из комнаты в коридор да еще распродать тещино серебро, — и получите «экономическую стратегию России-2017».

Новый министр экономики, назначенный после Улюкаева, в своем недавнем интервью уже озвучил основные экономические «приоритеты». Они сводятся к… составлению «таблицы основных проблем», как будто эти проблемы вот сейчас возникли, а не существуют уже много лет. В частности, министр обнаружил в России бедность, а еще теневую экономику. На основе таблицы глава экономического ведомства обещал разобраться и придумать, чем помочь тонущей стране. Не знаю, как вам, а мне сразу вспомнился герой фильма, у которого была мечта «иметь мечту». Однако пока министерство составляет план, как составить план, экономика продолжает стагнировать, а народ беднеет.

Самое тревожное то, что не вписывается в новый мировой технологический уклад, ее отставание от рвущихся вперед постиндустриальных стран становится катастрофическим. Доверенные Чубайсу нанотехнологии умерли не родившись вместе с медведевской «модернизацией». Некоторые новые технологические разработки есть только в ВПК и в космической отрасли. Но и в ней далеко не все ладно — последнее крушение космического грузовика «Прогресс МС-04» это наглядно продемонстрировало. В целом же мы продолжаем оставаться сырьевым придатком «идеологического противника», и с каждым годом проблема эта проявляется все отчетливей.

Мы теряем не только время, но и человеческий капитал. Старые кадры уходят, а новые никто системно не готовит. Качество образования рушится, наука коммерциализируется, мозги «утекают». Погружающимся в нищету семьям сложно воспитывать уже даже двух детей, а это означает прекращение воспроизводства нации.

То положение, в котором мы оказались, — это застой, остановка в развитии, а значит, все усиливающееся отставание. Россию накачивают силиконом и ботексом, ей делают пластику и накладывают грим, но она от этого не становится свежее и сильнее — совсем как «нестареющие» звезды из пресловутых новогодних ТВ-шоу, ставшие настоящим маркером застоя. Это просто картинка, причем в основном для внутреннего потребления, так как <a href=http://novostimira.net/voorugennie-sili-mira/193703-poltonni--slabij-argument.html>в мире</a> насчет истинного положения нашей страны лишь у немногих остались иллюзии.

Какой <a href=http://novostimira.net/konflikti_mira/novorossia/193275-rossija_bolshe_nam_ne_vrag_govorjat_teper_v_pentagone.html>Россия</a> будет, скажем, через 30 лет при таком «стабильном» затоплении? Какого дна она достигнет? Уходить под воду можно долго: есть еще советское наследие и пока годящиеся на продажу ресурсы. Но подниматься из года в год будет все сложнее. И кто знает, может быть, однажды всплытие окажется неосуществимым. Мир знал много цивилизаций, которые не вписались в темпы истории, и теперь они — лишь страница в учебнике да живописные развалины на холмах.

Давайте задумаемся, есть ли сейчас кто-то, кто способен поднять корабль «Россия» на поверхность? Быстрого положительного ответа на этот вопрос, увы, нет. Ставший ненадолго другом России Трамп на помощь уж точно не придет. «Своя» элита и плывущее в ее фарватере чиновничество присваивают себе национальное богатство, одновременно пуская корни за рубежом.

Однако если элита и власть не хотят ничего менять, то, может быть, их к этому принудит народ? «Магическое» столетие революции невольно толкает на размышления о повторении сценария. Но и тут пока резкой качки нет, классической революционной ситуации не наблюдается: такое впечатление, что и верхи, и низы одновременно не хотят резких изменений: одни — потому что их все устраивает, другие — так как боятся, что будет еще хуже. Таким образом, революционный юбилей пока что ожидается по-осеннему унылым и будничным. Прогноз погоды: локальные вспышки недовольства населения, «голодный» общественный консенсус на фоне стабильно-медленного затопления когда-то большого и быстроходного корабля.

Долго ли, однако, продлится эта депрессия? В народе ведь копится недовольство, растет чувство безысходности и отчаяния. И раздражителей хватает: тут и непомерные доходы чиновников и директоров корпораций, и показная роскошь элиты, и откровенно наглое воровство, и отказ правительства бороться с нищетой. В какой-то момент страх, что будет хуже, уйдет — просто потому что хуже будет некуда. Все как в классике.

Ответ: именно так, и это уже происходит, но пока на региональном уровне. Приведу свежий пример: гуковские шахтеры из Ростовской области, полтора года сидящие без зарплаты и доведенные до крайности, 19 декабря попытались выехать в Москву, чтобы провести акцию у Дома правительства. Их силой не выпустили, на несколько дней оцепив город. Но тут же, поняв серьезность ситуации, вмешался федеральный центр, и людям, пускай и медленно, начали платить деньги. Стараниями общественных активистов и депутатов Госдумы от оппозиции вопрос с долгами дошел до руководства страны, попал в СМИ, его стало невозможно замалчивать.

Этот случай показал результативность протеста — к слову, полностью законного и вовсе не радикального, а просто целенаправленного и упорного. Гуковская история пока уникальна, но инициативные группы сейчас возникают много где, и, судя по всему, подобного рода случаи еще будут повторяться.

Однако чтобы добиться более широких социально-экономических перемен, нужно и более широкое народное движение. А для него необходимы честные и непродажные лидеры — не популисты или радикалы, но люди государственного масштаба и ума. При этом, разумеется, не трусы, потому что бороться с ними будут жестко. Вот тут-то и есть сейчас основная загвоздка: людей, способных стать драйверами реформ, на горизонте не видно — слишком долго лидеров подобного склада зачищали на подступах к публичной политике. Или они сами, вступив на скользкую дорогу компромиссов, перековывались из мечей в пустые орала.

Но «нет» сейчас не значит, что не появятся в будущем: даже в зачищенных от диссидентов СССР и странах «народной демократии» в кризисные времена почти ниоткуда появились народные вожаки; тем легче это может произойти и в России, в том числе из тех же инициативных групп социальных протестов.

Спровоцировать и ускорить недовольство могут резкие встряски в экономике — как это было в 1990–91-м, затем в 1998 году. Такие риски сейчас создает, например, исчерпание резервных фондов. На 1 января 2017 года объем Резервного фонда составил 972 млрд рублей против 3,64 трлн руб. годом ранее. Получается, за год потрачено 73% средств фонда. Кроме того, по данным Минфина, за тот же период почти на 17% сократился и Фонд национального благосостояния — последний наш суверенный фонд. Многое, конечно, будет зависеть от нефтяной конъюнктуры, плюс есть еще возможность наращивания госдолга. Но это уже весьма тревожные сигналы для правительства, тем более что залезание в долги в условиях слабой экономики может закончиться дефолтом.

А как же высокие рейтинги власти? Разве они не создают для нее, казалось бы, прочную подушку безопасности? Ведь согласно последним данным «Левада-Центра», деятельность президента одобряет аж 84% граждан и этот показатель все время растет, как будто в стране нет кризиса и нищеты! Да, действительно, социология дает именно такие противоречивые результаты, во многом сформированные монополией государства на электронные СМИ. Но общественные настроения, как показывает история, могут отличаться от опросов, а кроме того, достаточно быстро меняться. Есть риск, что власть угодит в «ловушку Хиллари Клинтон»: ей социологи тоже рисовали уверенную победу на выборах в США, но не учли скрытые факторы, в американском случае — дачу социально одобряемых ответов. В российских реалиях на это еще накладывается атмосфера страха и закрытости — наши ведущие социологические службы сами говорят о высокой доле отказов от ответа. Так что в один прекрасный день, когда ситуация, не дай бог, вдруг качнется, может оказаться, что 84 процентов нет, а под окнами недовольная толпа. Именно так было в 2011 году, когда рейтинг «тандема» очень быстро просел, а затем начались протесты.

Итог: уныние и депрессия есть, но они не фатальны. Как не фатально пока, надеюсь, и наше погружение на дно. Если власть не хочет войти в историю как экипаж «Титаника», ей нужно начать преобразования. По срочному подъему судна, его реконструкции и ускоренному движению вперед.

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