The EU elections earlier this month redrew Europe's political contours to the right, further towards many anti-democratic and far-right parties. The European People's Party, one of seven groups in the EU parliament and the body’s largest party, espouses values embodied in the EU manifesto including plans to deport refugees to third 'safe countries.’

Yet, the June 9 elections saw a total of 24 percent of the votes go to parties even further to the right of the EPP, endorsing views as extreme as the AfD (Alternative for Germany), widely considered to be Nazi apologists, who came first in Germany's vote.

In France, the far-right National Rally secured nearly double as many votes as the party of President Macron. This result led to the most seismic impact so far, prompting Macron to announce a snap election for the French Parliament. 

The rise of the far-right was seen elsewhere across the continent. In Austria, FPÖ (Freedom Party of Austria) took the largest share of the votes. In Italy, the hard-right Brothers of Italy won, while the far-right Freedom Party (PVV) made the greatest gains in the Netherlands.

Against the specter of fascism increasing, centrist politicians did manage to maintain parliamentary control in the EU parliament, yet their numbers were reduced. Elsewhere, there were glimmers of hope including in the Nordic Countries, Spain, Portugal and eastern Europe, where far-right, hard-right or authoritarian parties polled fewer votes than in previous elections. 

In some places, progressive left and green parties even made headway. Also in Hungary, even though its incumbent authoritarian leader Viktor Orbán's party Fidesz won, it lost ground for the first time, to a new centrist opposition party.

Causes of the shift 

From enforcing austerity policies to its deadly border regime, the European Union is no democratic utopia. Clearly, rampant inequality driven by austerity and neoliberalism has opened the door for populists and the far-right.

Yet, the EU does organize tangible socially and ecologically progressive action, especially compared to most of the Global North. Areas where the EU block of 27 nations comparatively leads include corporate and banking regulation, climate change legislation and human rights. 

The new intake into the European Parliament threatens measures such as the European Green Deal. In this election there was a significant drop for the Green group in the EU parliament, although this group made such large gains in the last election in 2019 that they have only lost what they gained then.

2024 EU elections overview

After India, the EU holds the world's second largest elections. 373 million people in 27 countries are eligible to vote in the EU elections, voting for representatives from national parties through proportional representation. Turnout in 2024 was just shy of 51 percent. European parliamentarians sit in French Strasbourg, where they form seven multinational groups, drawn together by their values and policies.

Shifts in these groups show the changing political landscape. The three largest groups continue as the neoliberal right European People's Party took 186 seats, gaining 10; center-left Socialists and Democrats took 135 seats, losing 4; and liberal centrist Renew declined to 79, losing 23. The latter includes Macron's Renaissance Party. 

The Green group dropped 18 seats to 53, the Left lost one to end at 36, while a non-aligned group including the authoritarian Orban’s party in Hungary dropped 17 seats to 45.

Defining where the conservative right becomes hard-right, then far-right, is tricky. Spain's Partido Popular are part of the European People's Party, described as centre-right, even though its a legacy party of Spanish dictator Franco.

Further right, European Conservatives and Reformists (including Italy's Brothers of Italy, and Spanish far-right Vox) gained four seats up to 73. Furthest right, Identity and Democracy, which includes France's National Rally, grew by 9, and now holds 58 seats.

Shifts and movement are expected among these groups, especially the far-right, such as Germany's AfD trying to rejoin Identity and Democracy, from which it was expelled earlier in the year for being too pro-Nazi — a high bar even for this group. These expected shifts and rifts are driven by massive fault lines in the far and hard right, especially on issues such as relations to Russia.

Overall, the gains for the conservative, hard-right and far-right parties mean that what they agree on — from anti-climate to anti-human rights positions — will make the direction of the European Union more regressive. These parties can also be said to be winning in the way the 'centre parties' are mimicking their rhetoric and actions.

Will the far-right win in Paris and Berlin?

The deepest concern for democracy in Europe is the rise of far right parties, highlighted by events in France, Germany and Austria.

French President Macron's decision to call parliamentary elections has been described in the press as a shock, a gamble — and even “Russian Roulette.”

Why did he do it? Since June 2022, there has not been an overall mandate in the French parliament, a situation which could have caused early elections. Macron's gambit to the French people is that now they have to decide — democracy or the far-right — with the hope this will bring a big turnout to keep the far-right out. 

Many political commentators are also rationalizing the decision by saying the far-right could win in the elections, and the job of co-governing (he remains president until 2027) will make the far-right less appealing when it comes to the next presidential vote.

A cursory look at the Nordic countries' EU elections seems to back this assumption. Both Finland and Sweden saw a decline in support for the far-right, after it spent some time in government. The Danish far-right has lost ground, too, even though its anti-immigrants attacks have shifted the national dial with policies that increase its hostile environment towards migrants and refugees.

Yet there are countless warnings from history – and current times – that when fascists are given some power, it leads them to get more power. Looking at the Nordic countries, a more salient point seems that when given real alternatives to both the status-quo and the far-right, people can be mobilized to seek democratic alternatives.

This echoes a critique of Macron and other so-called centrist, neoliberal and status-quo politicians: by mimicking the hard and far-right and moving their policies in that direction, they may be the ones who are opening the door for fascists.